Glossary entry

English term or phrase:

judgmental trend

English answer:

empirical trend

Added to glossary by Piotr Fras
Dec 11, 2005 20:03
18 yrs ago
English term

judgmental trend

English Bus/Financial Economics statistics
The BEA estimates most of these using a so-called judgmental trend, based on the Census Bureau's quinquennial censuses and annual and quarterly surveys.

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Explanation below


In BEA descriptions of quarterly estimates of services consumption, the phrase
“judgemental trend” figures prominently, particularly for early estimates. The phrase refers to a range of method less formal than standard NIPA methodology, which are used prior to the availability of actual data, and which experience indicates do not produce
systematic errors. Typically the judgemental trend applies to changes in quantities, while
components of the CPI (which are rapidly available) are used to estimate price change.
For example, early estimates of housing services are based on a judgemental trend for the housing stock, combined with actual data on rents from the CPI. For a number of service categories, quantity change is estimated using employment change in the industry
providing the service.

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Note added at 40 mins (2005-12-11 20:43:13 GMT)
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http://www.bea.gov/bea/an/nipaguid.pdf
NIPA is the "National Income and Product Accounts".
Peer comment(s):

agree Dave Calderhead : thus it is an empirical trend judged to be sufficiently accurate for general foercasting purposes// Aargh! - you spotted my finger's deliberate mistake - there's no controlling them after dinner!
8 mins
Thanks Dave! I assume you mean "empirical".
agree Charlesp : exactly!
1 hr
Thanks Charles!
agree Jörgen Slet
3 hrs
Thanks Jorgen!
agree Alexandra Tussing
7 hrs
Thanks Alexandra!
agree Alfa Trans (X)
10 hrs
Thanks Marju!
agree Romanian Translator (X)
14 hrs
Thanks awana!
agree Nikos Mastrakoulis
18 hrs
Thank you Nikos!
agree Aisha Rishi
25 days
Something went wrong...
4 KudoZ points awarded for this answer. Comment: "Thanks everybody. Points go to Michael"
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